As of May 22, 2026, IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) is in a downtrend state on the monthly chart, with a confidence level of 67%. Key support is at $38.0 and key resistance at $47.3. Monthly rebound from ~$38 after a sharp selloff from the ~$67–$70 peak; price ~$42.95 is still below the falling EMA20 (~$47.30) and recent bounce stalled near mid-$40s.
Bearish continuation / retest of the swing low: bounce remains corrective (Elliott: ABC up) and price rolls over from below ~$47–$48, revisiting $38, with risk of a deeper flush if $38 fails. Rough probability: 55%.
Bottoming attempt into breakout-reversal: price forms a higher low above ~$38, then reclaims ~$47–$48 (EMA20/structure) and starts a recovery toward the prior breakdown zone; (Elliott: larger Wave (2) or start of new impulse if it can reclaim key levels). Rough probability: 45%.
Confirm DOWNTREND on a monthly close below $38.00
Invalidate DOWNTREND on two monthly closes back above $47.30 (EMA20) and holding
Start near the swing-low support ($38) for defined risk; add on a deeper Fibonacci-style retrace zone ($34–$36); heavy add only on capitulation into prior base/major retrace area ($28–$32).
Trim into the first major overhead supply/likely Wave (B)/(2) resistance ($56–$60), trim more into prior ATH supply ($66–$70), and consider full exit only if price becomes structurally and sentiment-wise stretched above the prior peak into an extension zone ($78–$85).
As of May 22, 2026, IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) is in a downtrend state on the monthly chart with 67% confidence. Monthly rebound from ~$38 after a sharp selloff from the ~$67–$70 peak; price ~$42.95 is still below the falling EMA20 (~$47.30) and recent bounce stalled near mid-$40s.
On the monthly timeframe, IBIT has key support at $38.0 and key resistance at $47.3. The most likely scenario (bearish) targets $38.0 and $34.0, with a revert level at $45.0.
IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) is currently classified as downtrend on the monthly chart, with 67% confidence. Confirmation requires: Confirm DOWNTREND on a monthly close below $38.00 This would be invalidated by: Invalidate DOWNTREND on two monthly closes back above $47.30 (EMA20) and holding
The most likely scenario (bearish) targets $38.0 and $34.0, with a revert level at $45.0. The alternative scenario (bullish) targets $48.0 and $56.0.
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